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Seminar: Macroeconomic Expectations

Overview

Expectations are at the heart of modern macroeconomic theories. The commonly made assumption of full information rational expectations, which has dominated the profession for a long time, is very simplistic and has lately been criticized more and more. In particular, this model does not allow for heterogeneity of macroeconomic expectations.

Over the recent years, researchers, central banks, and other institutions have collected more and more survey data on macroeconomic expectations that allow analyzing the nature of those expectations. How large is the observed hetero-geneity? Which factors can explain differences in, for instance, inflation or growth forecasts? Do agents with different expectations behave differently?

In this seminar, students will discuss different empirical papers that analyze various aspects which are relevant in the context of macroeconomic expectations. Students will be able to explain different models of expectation formation in macroeconomics. They will get to know different surveys of macroeconomic expectations and be able to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different survey designs. They will discuss how one can use such survey data to test models of expectation formation. In addition, students will enhance their presentation skills and practice how to write an academic text.

Organization

This course is a weekly seminar (2 SWS).

The course is taught in the winter term 2019/20 (and potentially every winter term afterwards). The course language is English.

The first meeting in the winter term 2019/20 will take plase on October 29, 2019. The room will be announced later.

You earn 5 ECTS by passing the seminar for which you have to hand in a seminar paper, present your work in the seminar, and participate in the discussions during the seminar meetings.

Syllabus

More information about how to register for the seminar, grading, available topics, and the course in general can be found in the syllabus.