Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern
Chair of Statistics and Econometrics
Professors
Address
Lange Gasse 20 90403 Nürnberg
Contact
Curriculum Vitae
| 2019 - | FAU, Professor of Statistics and Econometrics |
| 2014 - 2019 | Heidelberg University, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics |
| 2016 | RWTH Aachen University, Visiting Professor of Economics |
| 2013 - 2014 | Heidelberg University, Postdoc of Macroeconomics |
| 2009 - 2013 | Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting, Managing Director |
| Nov. 2012 | International Monetary Fund, Visiting Researcher |
| 2010 - 2011 | Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Consultant |
| Oct. 2010 | International Monetary Fund, Consultant |
| May/July 2010 | GIZ, Consultant to IFMR (Tashkent) |
| 2006 - 2009 | University of Kiel, PhD Student |
| 2005 - 2008 | Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Researcher |
| 2005 - 2006 | Kiel Institute for the World Economy,ASP Student |
| 2004 - 2005 | Maastricht University, European Studies (Minor) |
| 2001 - 2005 | Maastricht University, Econometrics (Master) |
Link to detailed CV.
Publications
2025
- Beck, N., Dovern, J., & Vogl, S. (2025). Mind the Naive Forecast! A Rigorous Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Time Series with Low Predictability. Applied Intelligence, 55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-025-06268-w
2024
- Dovern, J. (2024). Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households. International Journal of Forecasting, 40(1), 113-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.002
- Dovern, J., Glas, A., & Kenny, G. (2024). Testing for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations: a Compositional Data Approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 39(6), 1104-1122. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3080
2023
- Born, B., Dovern, J., & Enders, Z. (2023). Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news. European Economic Review, 154, 104440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104440
- Dovern, J., Frank, J., Glas, A., Müller, L.S., & Perico Ortiz, H. (2023). Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany. Energy Economics, 126, 106948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106948
- Dovern, J., Müller, L., & Wohlrabe, K. (2023). Local Information and Firm Expectations about Aggregates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 138, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.03.005
2022
- Buchheim, L., Dovern, J., Krolage, C., & Link, S. (2022). Sentiment and Firm Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 195, 186 - 198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.01.011
2020
- Dovern, J., & Kenny, G. (2020). Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area. International Journal of Central Banking, 64, 309 - 347.
- Dovern, J., & Manner, H. (2020). Order-Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 440-456. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2755
- Dovern, J., & Zuber, C. (2020). How Economic Crises Damage Potential Output – Evidence from the Great Recession. Journal of Macroeconomics, 65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103239
- Dovern, J., & Zuber, C. (2020). Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 122(4), 1431-1466. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12385
2017
- Dovern, J., & Hartmann, M. (2017). Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios. Empirical Economics, 53(1), 63-77. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1137-x
- Dovern, J., & Jannsen, N. (2017). Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle. International Journal of Forecasting, 33(4), 760-769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.03.003
2016
- Dovern, J., Feldkircher, M., & Huber, F. (2016). Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 70, 86-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2016.06.006
- Rickels, W., Dovern, J., Hoffmann, J., Quaas, M.F., Schmidt, J.O., & Visbeck, M. (2016). Indicators for monitoring sustainable development goals: An application to oceanic development in the European Union. Earth's Future, 4(5), 252-267. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000353
- Rickels, W., Dovern, J., & Quaas, M. (2016). Beyond fisheries: Common-pool resource problems in oceanic resources and services. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 40, 37-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.013
2015
- Dovern, J. (2015). A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data. European Economic Review, 80, 16-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.009
- Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., Loungani, P., & Tamirisa, N. (2015). Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(1), 144-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.06.002
- Dovern, J., & Huber, F. (2015). Global prediction of recessions. Economics letters, 133, 81-84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.05.022
2014
- Dovern, J., Quaas, M.F., & Rickels, W. (2014). A comprehensive wealth index for cities in Germany. Ecological Indicators, 41, 79-86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.01.009
- Dovern, J., & Van Roye, B. (2014). International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress. Journal of Financial Stability, 13, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2014.02.006
2013
- Dovern, J. (2013). When are GDP forecasts updated? Evidence from a large international panel. Economics letters, 120 (3), 521-523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.06.007
2012
- Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2012). Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1081-1096.
2011
- Dovern, J., & Weisser, J. (2011). Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(2), 452-465. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.016
2010
- Dovern, J., & Blank, S. (2010). What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro‐macro model. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2(2), 126-148.
- Dovern, J., Meier, C.-P., & Vilsmeier, J. (2010). How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1839-1848. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.001
2008
- Dovern, J., Döpke, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2008). The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1540
- Dovern, J., Döpke, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2008). The Sticky Information Phillips Curve. European Evidence. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(7), 1513-1519.
2007
- Dovern, J., & Nunnenkamp, P. (2007). Aid and Growth Accelerations: An Alternative Approach to Assessing the Effectiveness of Aid. Kyklos, 60(3), 359-383. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.2007.00376.x
- Bjerkander, L., J. Dovern, and H. Manner (2024). Testing with Vectors of Statistics: Revisiting Combined Hypothesis Tests with an Application to Specification Testing, CESifo Working Papers, 11027.
- Dovern, J., A. Glas, and G. Kenny (2023). Testing for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations: a Compositional Data Approach, ECB Working Paper, No. 2791.
- Dovern, J. and G. Kenny, 2017, The Long-term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: What Has Changed since the Great Recession?, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1999.
- Dovern, J., U. Fritsche, P. Loungani and N. Tamirisa, 2013, Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel, IMF Working Paper 13/56.
- Dovern, J., U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, 2009, Disagreement among Forecasters in the G7 Countries, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1082.
- Döpke, J., J. Dovern, U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 930.
- Multi-Task Learning for Macroeconoimc Forecasting (with J. Frank, submitted)
- MIDAS Meets Multi-Task Learning: Improving Employment Nowcasts (with J. Frank)
- Rounding Reflects Expectation Uncertainty: Causal Evidence from an RCT (with A. Glas, submitted)
- Historical Consistent Neural Networks for Steel Price Forecasting (with N. Beck, S. Vogl, H. Wrobel and H. G. Zimmermann, R&R)
- The Causal Effects of Trump's Reelection on Business Expectations of German Firms (with K. Wohlrabe, submitted)
- When Do Macroeconomic Expectations Get Through? State-Dependent Pass-Through to Firm-Level Expectations (with A. Schneider and K. Wohlrabe, submitted)
- Eliciting Expectation Posteriors: the Role of Information Provision about Priors (with A. Schneider)
- Interpersonal Trust and Central Bank Communication
- Commodity price shocks and inflation expectations: a functional VAR approach (with A. Bauer and M. Böck)
- Nowcasting Retail Sales and Private Consumption in Germany (with A. Bauer and R. Bürkl)
- Inflation Narratives and Their Impact on Inflation Expectations of Private Households (with M. Unfried)
Teaching
An overview of all courses that are currently offered by our chair can be found here for the Bachelor's degree programs and here for the Master's degree programs.
In the past, I have taught a wide range of courses ranging from introductory courses in macroeconomics and econometrics to more specialized courses in monetary policy, macroeconometrics, and econometric forecasting.
Other Professional Activities
Since 2022, I manage our Bachelor program "BA Wirtschaftswissenschaften".
Associate Editor for Empirical Economics (since 2019)
Associate Editor for Journal of Business Cycle Research (since 2026)
American Economic Review; American Economic Review: Insights; Applied Economics; Canadian Journal of Economics; DAAD; Ecological Economics; Economic Inquiry; Economic Journal; Economic Modelling; Economic Systems; Economics Letters; Emerging Markets Finance and Trade; Empirical Economics; Energy Economics; Ensayos sobre Política Ecónomica; European Economic Review; Fulbright Germany; German Economic Review; International Journal of Central Banking; International Journal of Forecasting; International Review of Economics and Finance; Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of Business & Economic Statistics; Journal of Business Cycle Research; Journal of Economics & Business; Journal of Financial Stability; Journal of Forecasting; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals; Macroeconomic Dynamics; Management Science; Oesterreichische Nationalbank; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics; Portuguese Economic Journal; Public Finance Review; Quantitative Economics; Review of Economics & Statistics; Scandinavian Journal of Economics; Southern Economic Journal; Spring Meeting of Young Economists; Verein für Socialpolitik.