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  2. School of Business, Economics and Society
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Chair of Statistics and Econometrics WiSo
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  4. Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern

Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern

In page navigation: Team
  • Staff of Chair
    • Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern
    • Martina Lämmerzahl
    • Dr. Alexander Glas
    • Johannes Frank
    • Gohar Grigoryan
    • Lena Müller
    • Daniel Perico Ortiz
  • External Lecturers
    • Prof. Dr. Matthias Fischer
    • Prof. Dr. Raimund Wildner
    • Dr. Monika Doll
    • Dr. Johannes Stübinger
    • Prof. Dr. Michael Grottke
  • External PhD Candidates
    • Christian Mühlroth
  • Former Employees
    • Prof. Dr. Ingo Klein

Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern

Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern

Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern
Head of Chair

School of Business, Economics and Society
Chair of Statistics and Econometrics

Room: Raum 4.169
Lange Gasse 20
90403 Nürnberg
  • Phone number: +499115302-95492
  • Fax number: +499115302-95277
  • Email: jonas.dovern@fau.de

Office hours

By appointment

 

 

Curriculum Vitae

Brief CV

2019 – FAU, Professor of Statistics and Econometrics
2014 – 2019 Heidelberg University, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics
2016 RWTH Aachen University, Visiting Professor of Economics
2013 – 2014 Heidelberg University, Postdoc of Macroeconomics
2009 – 2013 Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting, Managing Director
Nov. 2012 International Monetary Fund, Visiting Researcher
2010 – 2011 Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Consultant
Oct. 2010 International Monetary Fund, Consultant
May/July 2010 GIZ, Consultant to IFMR (Tashkent)
2006 – 2009 University of Kiel, PhD Student
2005 – 2008 Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Researcher
2005 – 2006 Kiel Institute for the World Economy,ASP Student
2004 – 2005 Maastricht University, European Studies (Minor)
2001 – 2005 Maastricht University, Econometrics (Master)

Detailed CV

Link to detailed CV.

Publications

Peer-reviewed Publications

2022

  • Buchheim, L., Dovern, J., Krolage, C., & Link, S. (2022). Sentiment and Firm Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 195, 186 - 198. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.01.011

2020

  • Dovern, J., & Kenny, G. (2020). Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area. International Journal of Central Banking, 64, 309 - 347.
  • Dovern, J., & Manner, H. (2020). Order-Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 440-456. https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.2755
  • Dovern, J., & Zuber, C. (2020). How Economic Crises Damage Potential Output – Evidence from the Great Recession. Journal of Macroeconomics, 65. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103239
  • Dovern, J., & Zuber, C. (2020). Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 122(4), 1431-1466. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12385

2017

  • Dovern, J., & Hartmann, M. (2017). Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios. Empirical Economics, 53(1), 63-77. https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1137-x
  • Dovern, J., & Jannsen, N. (2017). Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle. International Journal of Forecasting, 33(4), 760-769. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.03.003

2016

  • Dovern, J., Feldkircher, M., & Huber, F. (2016). Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 70, 86-100. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2016.06.006
  • Rickels, W., Dovern, J., Hoffmann, J., Quaas, M.F., Schmidt, J.O., & Visbeck, M. (2016). Indicators for monitoring sustainable development goals: An application to oceanic development in the European Union. Earth's Future, 4(5), 252-267. https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000353
  • Rickels, W., Dovern, J., & Quaas, M. (2016). Beyond fisheries: Common-pool resource problems in oceanic resources and services. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 40, 37-49. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.013

2015

  • Dovern, J. (2015). A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data. European Economic Review, 80, 16-35. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.009
  • Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., Loungani, P., & Tamirisa, N. (2015). Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(1), 144-154. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.06.002
  • Dovern, J., & Huber, F. (2015). Global prediction of recessions. Economics letters, 133, 81-84. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.05.022

2014

  • Dovern, J., Quaas, M.F., & Rickels, W. (2014). A comprehensive wealth index for cities in Germany. Ecological Indicators, 41, 79-86. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.01.009
  • Dovern, J., & Van Roye, B. (2014). International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress. Journal of Financial Stability, 13, 1-17. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2014.02.006

2013

  • Dovern, J. (2013). When are GDP forecasts updated? Evidence from a large international panel. Economics letters, 120 (3), 521-523. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.06.007

2012

  • Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2012). Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1081-1096.

2011

  • Dovern, J., & Weisser, J. (2011). Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(2), 452-465. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.016

2010

  • Dovern, J., & Blank, S. (2010). What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro‐macro model. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2(2), 126-148.
  • Dovern, J., Meier, C.-P., & Vilsmeier, J. (2010). How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1839-1848. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.001

2008

  • Dovern, J., Döpke, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2008). The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 8(1). https://dx.doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1540
  • Dovern, J., Döpke, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2008). The Sticky Information Phillips Curve. European Evidence. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(7), 1513-1519.

2007

  • Dovern, J., & Nunnenkamp, P. (2007). Aid and Growth Accelerations: An Alternative Approach to Assessing the Effectiveness of Aid. Kyklos, 60(3), 359-383. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.2007.00376.x

Selected Working Papers

  • Buchheim, L., J. Dovern, C. Krolage, and S. Link, 2020, Firm-Level Expectations and Behavior in Response to the COVID-19 Crisis, CESifo Working Papers, No. 8304.
  • Dovern, J. and G. Kenny, 2017, The Long-term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: What Has Changed since the Great Recession?, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1999.
  • Dovern, J., U. Fritsche, P. Loungani and N. Tamirisa, 2013, Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel, IMF Working Paper 13/56.
  • Dovern, J., U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, 2009, Disagreement among Forecasters in the G7 Countries, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1082.
  • Döpke, J., J. Dovern, U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 930.

Work in Progress

  • Uncertainty, Expectation Dispersion, and the Reaction to News (with B. Born and Z. Enders)
  • Multivariate Evaluation of Macroeconomic Forecasts (with H. Manner and M. Wolters)
  • Influence of Local Experience and Socioeconomic Factors on Expectations of Private Households (with C. Conrad and F. Krüger)
  • Heterogeneity of Coroporate Growth Forecasts (with L. Müller and K. Wohlrabe)
  • Heterogeneity in Professional Macroeconomic Density Forecasts (with A. Glas and G. Kenny)

Teaching

An overview of all courses that are currently offered by our chair can be found here for the Bachelor’s degree programs and here for the Master’s degree programs.

In the past, I have taught a wide range of courses ranging from introductory courses in macroeconomics and econometrics to more specialized courses in monetary policy, macroeconometrics, econometric forecasting.

Other Professional Activities

Service as Editor

Associate Editor for Empirical Economics (since 2019)

Refereeing

Academic Journals

Applied Economics; Canadian Journal of Economics; Ecological Economics; Economic Journal; Economic Modelling; Economic Systems; Economics Letters; Emerging Markets Finance and Trade; Empirical Economics; Energy Economics; Ensayos sobre Política Ecónomica; European Economic Review; German Economic Review; International Journal of Central Banking; International Journal of Forecasting; International Review of Economics and Finance; Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of Business & Economic Statistics; Journal of Economics & Business; Journal of Financial Stability; Journal of Forecasting; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; Macroeconomic Dynamics; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics; Portuguese Economic Journal; Public Finance Review; Review of Economics & Statistics; Scandinavian Journal of Economics; Southern Economic Journal.

Other

King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals; Oesterreichische Nationalbank; Verein für Socialpolitik
Friedrich-Alexander-Universität
Erlangen-Nürnberg

Lange Gasse 20
90403 Nuremberg
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